Matt Ryan has lived up to being the Falcons' franchise quarterback in almost every way since Atlanta made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2008 draft. A dozen years later, at 35, he's showing some decline in his passing capacity.
Ryan has done his best throwing the ball to compensate for an awful defense, but by some mistakes of his own, he couldn't prevent a 0-5 start that caused both coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff, the man who drafted him, to be fired. Just four years removed from his MVP season under Kyle Shahanan in which he led the team to Super Bowl 51, Ryan is at a career crossroads of sorts on a team in need of a roster overhaul to be competitive in the tough NFC South again.
Foxworth picks interesting destination for Matt Ryan. Wants Matt Ryan on a one-way ticket out of Atlanta. 2020 NFC South Standings. Team W L T PCT PF PA; New Orleans: 12. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan knows his team had a chance to have more than four wins this season but fell short.
Suddenly, there has been speculation about the Falcons drafting Ryan's replacement in 2021 while his name also is being tossed in trade rumors. Here's a breakdown of Ryan's big contract with the Falcons and how it ties into his future in Atlanta, a place he wants to end his career.
MORE: How murky is Matt Ryan's future with Falcons?
Matt Ryan contract details
Ryan became the highest-paid player in the NFL in terms of average annual salary ($30 million) in May 2018, per Spotrac. The five-year deal he signed then was for a total of $150 million to keep him under contract through the 2023 season. The extension came on the heels of a five-year, $103.75 million deal that ran through 2019.
With his current contract, Ryan had $100 million totally guaranteed. He was guaranteed $94.5 million at signing and got a signing bonus of $46.5 million.
Ryan has slipped to No. 10 among QBs as now nine are making more than his $30 million per season. That includes the Cowboys' Dak Prescott, who earned $31.4 million guaranteed on the franchise tag in 2020. Ryan is now just ahead of Ryan Tannehill ($29.5 million), Jimmy Garoppolo ($27.5 million) and Matthew Stafford ($27 million).
What is Matt Ryan's salary cap hit?
Ryan had cap hits of $17.7 million and $15.8 million on the first two years of his new deal. In 2020, that's shot back up to $18.962 million. In 2021, the number balloons to $40.92 million before reaching a peak of $41.662 million in 2021. This year, he carries the second-biggest cap number on the team behind his go-to wide receiver Julio Jones ($20.4 million). In relation to the cap, Ryan is a relative bargain given the escalating QB salaries, but that will change in a hurry as he gets older.
When can the Falcons get out of Matt Ryan's contract?
Going into Week 8, the Falcons were positioned for the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL Draft. If the Jets and Jaguars do stay ahead of them as worse teams in the end, the Falcons would likely miss out on both Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State's Justin Fields, assuming both elite QB prospects declare early.
There's a good reason Ryan was never a realistic trade option ahead of the midseason deadline. The Falcons would get only limited cap relief ($1 million) now while eating more than $63 million in dead money. As that might suggest, the Falcons also are locked into Ryan in 2021. A trade in March would cost them more than $44 million in dead cap with an extra cap burden of more than $3 million. Designating such a move for after June 1 is also expensive, with $44 million in dead cap over two years to offset a cap savings of $23 million.
The Falcons could part ways with Ryan a little more reasonably ahead of the 2022 season, eating $26.525 million and saving more than $15 million. But a breakup gets a whole lot easier in 2023, when a straight-up release costs the Falcons only $8.6 million in dead cap with a significant $28 million savings.
Matt Ryan Stats
Ryan will turn 36 next May. The Falcons, based on the financials, are locked into him for two more seasons. He isn't the same big-armed passer he once was, but he is still efficient and is lifted by a strong supporting cast of skill players. The 'elite' label might not be there but if he remains a top-half QB, Atlanta would likely stick with starting him through his age 37 season.
© Provided by Fansided© Provided by FansidedATLANTA, GA – OCTOBER 12: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons passes against the Chicago Bears at the Georgia Dome on October 12, 2014 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
With his future as an Atlanta Falcon now in some doubt, here are three teams who can make a case to trade for Matt Ryan.
It took the fifth loss of an 0-5 start for it to happen, but the Atlanta Falcons have fired head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff. Now the focus will shift toward the future, and on Monday owner Arthur Blank spoke about quarterback Matt Ryan.
'I love Matt, much like I love Dan [Quinn], I love Thomas [Dimitroff],' Blank said in a press conference that featured a pool reporter asking pre-submitted questions, as to the specific topic of Ryan's interest in playing until he's 40. 'Matt's been a franchise leader for us. A great quarterback. One of the leading quarterbacks in the last 13 years in the NFL. So I hope he's gonna be part of our plans going forward. But that will be a decision that I won't make.'
Blank gets credit for letting the people he hires make the football decisions, and the new people he ultimately hires won't have to deal with a meddling owner. Something else Blank said is interesting.
Arthur Blank asked about Matt Ryan's future with the #Falcons: 'I love Matt. … I hope he's going to be part of our plans going forward but that won't be a decision I make.' Also says the decision will be 'partly up to the player.'
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) October 12, 2020
So if Ryan, 35, wants to play until he's 40 but wants no part of a rebuild in Atlanta, he may have some say in being traded and where he goes. It's also possible, if not likely, that a new coaching staff will want to start from scratch with a young quarterback right off the bat.
The Falcons are set to wait for that new regime to make big decisions, but the door seems to be open to deals before the deadline if a team came with a good enough offer.
No fire sale for the #Falcons this year. Rich McKay says he will let the next regime come in and evaluate this roster. If they get an offer they can't refuse in the coming weeks, different story. But no active teardown is imminent.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) October 12, 2020
There is the small matter of Ryan's contract. After this season, he has three years left on a five-year, $150 million deal he signed in 2018. He has a $40.9 million cap hit for 2021, and if he were cut before June 1, 2021, the Falcons would take a $49.9 million dead money hit. A trade before that date would give Atlanta a $44.4 million dead money hit for next year (a Over The Cap).
According to Spotrac, Ryan's contract has an opt-out after 2021 that would create $26.525 million in dead money.
Another contract restructure will probably be required for Ryan to extend his stay in Atlanta, since they are in deep cap trouble looking to next year. A restructure could also help pave the way for a trade.
With all that's in play, these three teams can make a case to trade for Ryan.
3 teams who could trade for Matt Ryan
The Bears are moving on from Mitch Trubisky (even if he plays again this season), and Nick Foles is not the answer long-term. With a 4-1 record right now, they might end up being just good enough to not be in position to draft one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2021 class. That's not a good place to be in, without mentioning their cap situation in 2021.
Top 10 teams estimated to be over the salary cap in 2021
($s amount OTC so bigger is worse)
1. Saints- $82.8M
2. Eagles- $72.6M
3. Falcons- $37.5M
4. Steelers- $28.3M
5. Rams- $23.9M
6. Chiefs- $22.1M
Matt Ryan Actor
7. Texans- $14.6M
8. Vikings- $14.1M
9. Raiders- $13.3M
10. Bears- $7.7M
— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) October 11, 2020
So the Bears would have to find a way to clear a ton of cap space to make room for Ryan. Multiple contract restructurings looks like the best path to get that done. But if GM Ryan Pace is on the hot seat, in concert with head coach Matt Nagy, some tough decisions on cuts also could come if it means adding a credible quarterback in win-now mode.
Out of desperation, a lack of patience or bad luck, the Bears never seem to make the right decision at quarterback. Adding Ryan doesn't feel like it would be to the level of previous mistakes, and they would not necessarily be married to him past 2021 if the aforementioned contract out remains as is.
© Provided by FansidedCredit: The Indianapolis Star via USA TODAY Images
The Colts have Philip Rivers on a one-year deal. Any earlier talk of him coming back for a second season in Indianapolis is all but gone with the way he's looked at times this season.
The Colts are also likely to move way from No. 2 quarterback Jacoby Brissett, either via a trade before the upcoming deadline or surely come the offseason when he becomes a free agent. That leaves 2020 draft pick Jacob Eason as the only quarterback currently under contract for the Colts in 2021.
The Colts can go a lot of different directions at quarterback looking to next year. With projected cap space in the $76 million range (via Over The Cap), a significant run at someone in free agency is not out of the question. More narrowly, making room to take on a huge cap hit in a trade would seem to require no significant cap maneuvering.
When they signed Rivers, the Colts went into a win-now mode for 2020 while maintaining their substantial flexibility in the future. Trading for Ryan would be another short-window, win-now move at quarterback, while still not necessarily hampering the broader construction of a good roster. The idea of Ryan to Indianapolis in 2021 is sure to pick up steam.
He was clearly not operating at 100 percent coming off an ankle injury, but Jimmy Garoppolo was so dreadful in Week 5 against the Miami Dolphins that he was benched in a blowout loss. That has invited talk about his future in San Francisco, and more specifically if/when the 49ers could move on.
Garoppolo is under contract through 2022, with cap hits of $26.9 million for 2021 and $27 million. But, according to Over The Cap, if he were cut or traded before June 1 next year the 49ers would clear $24.1 million in cap space with $2.8 million in dead money. So moving on would not be hard to do, if Garoppolo continues to be an average quarterback who is paid like he's something more.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator in Atlanta in 2015 and 2016. In 2016, Ryan had the best season of his career (4,944 yards, 38 touchdowns, 7 INT, 9.3 yards per attempt, 117.1 passer rating) and won league MVP.
The 49ers would need to clear some cap space, as most teams who'd even think about trading for Ryan would. But with a projected $15 million in space right now, moving on from Garoppolo would be the big (and easy, if the situation goes that direction) move to get it done. If Ryan has a say in picking his trade destination, San Francisco and a reunion with Shanahan might be it. And all things considered, Shanahan may want Ryan and he'll tell GM John Lynch so.